Europe may be on the verge of seeing dengue and chikungunya become endemic diseases, as climate change fuels the northward spread of tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus), according to a new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
These viruses, typically confined to tropical regions, are now appearing more frequently across Europe. The study shows that rising temperatures have made outbreaks more common since 2010, with over 300 dengue cases recorded in the EU in 2024 alone—a notable jump from the 275 cases seen across the prior 15 years.
Countries like Italy, France, Spain, and Croatia have already experienced outbreaks. Researchers say that with current warming trends, outbreaks could surge fivefold by 2060 under the worst-case climate scenarios.
The study also found that wealthier areas report more outbreaks, possibly due to better diagnostics, suggesting the disease may be underreported in lower-income regions. The French territory of Réunion recently saw a deadly chikungunya outbreak, reinforcing concerns.
Tiger mosquitoes also carry other dangerous viruses, such as Zika and West Nile, though these were not part of the current analysis.
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